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The Ashes may offer a reason to cheer, but this contest will also see the Aussie side celebrate a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day prior to the team was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Older Squad Fascination Grows

For two or three years there has been mounting fascination with the average age of this team and especially the bowling unit. It is rare to have nearly all player in a Test side being above thirty, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a problem: a Test squad boasting a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

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Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any side knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a group of simultaneous departures, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a process that would indeed be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, change is upon them, imposed on this Australian squad in the span of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only miss the opening match, was the team management assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the team balance undergoes a much more significant shift with two key bowlers missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Tests coming on after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories portray him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the field on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what further injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how complicated stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of getting injured early in series and a history of initially small injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Outlook Unclear

The latter part of the contest may see the primary four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might see transition beginning much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane option, but after that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this level is no place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the real unknown, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that change a-coming, coming around the bend, and the English team ain’t seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.